The AI layoffs may not be late. They may be deferred.
That’s the unsettling point in Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs’s latest analysis: technology-related job disruption has historically been limited when the economy is healthy, then accelerated during cyclical slowdowns. A recession is not scheduled or necessarily imminent. But if a downturn comes, it can change the timing of automation’s impact, and the options available to workers caught in it.
For people in IT, coding, manufacturing, trucking, logistics, administration, and adjacent fields, the sensible response is not to predict the next downturn. It is to prepare while conditions are better.
Why The AI Job Shock Could Arrive In Steps
Goldman’s historical review finds that the share of Americans in routine occupations (including clerks, secretaries, factory machine operators, and mechanics) held relatively steady during expansions, then fell in steps during the recessions of the early 1980s, 2001, 2008, and 2020. The share did not return to its prior level afterward.
The pattern matters because a strong labor market can give employers reasons to retrain or redeploy workers. When demand weakens, those incentives may fade. As Goldman economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei wrote in October 2025, companies have used recessions to restructure and streamline their workforces. Briggs’s more recent analysis argues that automation-related disruption tends to accelerate during cyclical slowdowns. (Goldman Sachs analysis, reported by Fortune)
The occupations hit hardest by earlier technologies offer a warning, but not a forecast for every worker. Across a sample of 25 occupations disrupted by past technology, including photo processors, movie projectionists, proofreaders, file clerks, and bank tellers, employment fell an average of 25% in the five years after decline began. Briggs describes those cases as likely upper bounds for AI: they were selected because they were among the hardest-hit. Separation rates rose in 19 of the 25 occupations, by 3.8 percentage points on average; hiring rates fell in 13, by 0.7 points. These figures describe historical occupations, not a guaranteed outcome for today’s workers.
Goldman’s baseline estimate assumes AI eventually raises productivity by 15%. Under that scenario, around 9% of workers (roughly one in 11) could be displaced during the transition, with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. The 9% is a measure of gross displacement during a transition, not a prediction that 9% of workers will remain permanently unemployed. Briggs expects the unemployment-rate increase in any given year to be less than one percentage point; some displaced workers find work quickly, while others leave the labor force. In a June discussion, he described the transition as spanning a decade. (Goldman Sachs Exchanges)
The Headwind Is Real, But The Timeline Is Uncertain
Signs of strain have appeared, particularly in exposed white-collar work. Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen estimate that AI is associated with U.S. job losses exceeding 10,000 roles per month, concentrated in accounting, advertising, office administration, and legal services, partly offset by hiring for data-center construction. That is an estimate, not an official count of layoffs caused solely by AI. (Fortune’s report on the Pantheon estimate)
Briggs says job growth in the most AI-exposed industries has run about 10,000 below its long-run trend over the past three months. At the same time, AI-attributed layoffs tracked by Challenger have pulled back from their spring peak. Goldman says only 23% of U.S. establishments have built AI into regular workflows so far, suggesting adoption is far from complete. Its near-term conclusion is measured: the labor-market headwind is emerging, but remains smaller than feared earlier this year. The economy and labor market have stayed resilient in 2026, giving companies less incentive to cut labor costs aggressively.
There are also reasons not to treat every task exposed to AI as a job already lost. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei softened his earlier warning that half of entry-level white-collar jobs could disappear, invoking the Jevons paradox: automate 90% of a job and the remaining 10% may expand as people take on more of it. He has also cautioned that AI is moving faster than previous technologies and could produce unusually disruptive effects. Both points can be true. A forecast is not a schedule.
Stress-Test Your Career Before A Downturn
Waiting for a layoff notice is a poor timing strategy. In a downturn, retraining opportunities, hiring, credit, and buyer financing can all become harder to access. While your income is stable, take practical steps:
- Inventory Your Tasks: List what you do each week. Identify tasks AI can already perform, tasks it can help with, and work that depends on judgment, physical execution, accountability, or human trust.
- Measure Employer Exposure: Is your function routine-heavy? Is your employer deploying AI? Are roles going unfilled or backfills slowing? Look for evidence, not just announcements.
- Build Financial Runway: Review savings, debt, and household expenses. Decide how much time you could manage if income fell, and take reasonable steps to improve that position.
- Strengthen Your Options: Document measurable results, learn relevant tools, and build relationships outside your current employer now, not after a cut.
- Compare Paths Honestly: Price retraining against other choices, including a potential ownership path. Decide in advance how much uncertainty, time, and financial risk you can accept.
Business Ownership Offers Agency, Not A Safe Harbor
For some workers, business ownership may be worth exploring as a way to apply management, customer service, operations, or logistics experience toward building an asset. Franchising offers a structured route into business operations, often with training and an established system. But a franchise is not a guaranteed alternative to employment risk.
The risks include capital requirements and possible debt; uncertain local demand; hiring and retaining staff; day-to-day execution; royalties and other fees; franchisor rules and territory terms; ongoing technology costs, including required software subscriptions and platform upgrades; and automation that may change labor needs or competitive position.
THERE IS NO GUARANTEED INCOME. Past results, where disclosed, do not guarantee future performance.
Before pursuing a franchise for sale, assess how its work may change as technology advances. A business can use automation to improve efficiency, but may also need fewer staff, new systems, or additional investment to keep pace. The right question is not simply “What are the best franchises to own?” It is “Which opportunity, if any, fits my finances, skills, local market, and tolerance for risk?”
How To Buy A Franchise With Due Diligence
Start with the FTC’s Consumer Guide to Buying a Franchise and read the brand’s Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) carefully. Pay particular attention to:
- Items 5–7: Initial fees, other fees, and estimated total investment.
- Item 11: Training, assistance, computer systems, and required upgrades.
- Item 19: Any financial performance representations, the information behind them, and their limits. Not every franchisor provides one.
- Item 20: Outlet history and contact information for current and former franchisees.
Ask specifically about required AI or software spending, when platform upgrades are expected, what they may cost, and how territory rights address online sales. Speak with both current and former franchisees; their experiences can help you test claims against operating reality. Have an independent franchise attorney and an independent financial professional review the documents and your assumptions.
The FTC’s Franchise Rule Compliance Guide explains disclosure requirements. In general, the FDD must be provided at least 14 calendar days before you sign or pay the franchisor or an affiliate. The SBA Franchise Directory can help identify brands eligible for SBA financial assistance; inclusion is not an endorsement or guarantee of success.
Choose The Next Move With Evidence
A career transition does not have to end in business ownership. But if you want to explore that path, a FranLift consultant can help clarify your goals, budget, and operating preferences, then explore franchise opportunities that may fit. The service is free for buyers because franchise companies cover FranLift’s costs through their development and marketing budgets. That compensation model is worth understanding as you evaluate recommendations, and independent professional advice remains essential.
Contact FranLift to start a conversation, not to skip the homework.
This article is for informational purposes only. It is not employment, legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Franchise ownership involves risk; no outcome or income is guaranteed. Consult qualified independent professionals before making decisions.
© 2026 FranLift. Launch Beyond Boundaries.
